Web advertising industry snapshot - First half, 2009

Minor updates, July 22, 2009:

Short and sweet tonight. Here's what we've seen in the Web ad industry during the first half of 2009:

1. Q1 performed better than expected, given the current economic conditions. Consumer confidence, unemployment, interest rates, energy prices and more have contributed to restricting economic growth in most business sectors.

2. Q2 performed much better than planned, due to stable-to-growing demand for online ad space.

3. Overall financial performance for 1H09 looks to be lower than in 2008, but only slightly, with a decline under 10% (which is less than predicted by a variety of forecasters).

4. Ad networks performed relatively well. We think this is due to better optimization tools and practices, as well as advertisers shifting budgets away from broadcast, print and cable to the Web.

5. We've noted a slight increase in VC funding of publishers and advertising intermediaries, somewhat disrupting natural pricing equilibrium for both buyers and sellers.

6. We've noted some realignment of publishers and advertising intermediaries away from conventional online media (banners, for example) opening opportunities for those who can effectively work these formats.

Outlook for 2H09:

1. We believe economic conditions will weaken further through the end of the year, with key indicators such as the unemployment rate, interest rates, real estate values, energy prices, tax increases, state budget deficits, tight credit conditions, and more choking economic growth.

2. We agree with predictions that unemployment will exceed 15% (or perhaps even much more) during 2010.

3. This particularly critical benchmark will cause marketers to continue to be conservative with their budgets.

4. We think the Web advertising sector should continue to be sound with stable-to-moderate growth. We expect blue chip advertisers to continue increasing their online ad spending for the rest of the year.

More to come, but we wanted to be among the first with a 1H09 summary.